Recent violent events in Kosovo are part of a crisis related to an independence struggle that has existed for a number of years in both the old and the new Yugoslavia. The new factor in the crisis is that both sides to the conflict have now increased their use of force. This has
followed a period of several years characterised by at least two features: the Kosovar Albanians (who constitute roughly 90% of the population in Serbia's province of Kosovo) have systematically been denied basic human rights, and they have openly expressed their intention not to abide by Yugoslav or Serbian laws. The result has been the creation of a parallel Albanian society (including government structures, education system, tax collection, etc) unofficially existing alongside the repressive rule from Belgrade. Indeed, Belgrade has used this challenge to national security and the constitutional order as justification for directly governing Kosovo and limiting the local autonomy that is re-affirmed in the Serbian Constitution of 1990 (articles 6, 108-112).
Two basic principles appear to be guiding the international community's response to the conflict: the right to self-determination and respect for the territorial integrity of states. Accordingly, the European Union and United States have insisted that it is not possible for the Kosovar Albanians to unilaterally separate from Yugoslavia, although they should be granted an effective and enhanced form of local autonomy.
In the event that international preventive efforts do not succeed in attenuating the conflict and refugee flows begin destabilizing the region, UNHCR has been involved since 1993 in the discreet preparation of contingency plans. It is generally believed that tensions between the
Albanian minority and Slav majority in the neighbouring Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia would be dramatically aggravated by an inflow ofKosovar Albanian refugees, and that the relatively unstable and weak government would have difficulty in controlling the situation. Most speculation about the possibility of a wider Balkan war stems from this
scenario because all regional states (Yugoslavia, Albania, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey) could be implicated if FYR Macedonia were to be destabilized by a mass inflow of refugees from Kosovo. Likewise, the anarchy in neighbouring Albania that prompted an international military deployment in 1997 contributes to fears of destabilization that could be provoked by the arrival of refugees.
The contingency plans prepared by UNHCR involve three dimensions: containment and protection/assistance for up to 200,000 displaced persons within the borders of Yugoslavia, protection/assistance for up to 100,000 refugees in northern Albania, and 70,000 in north-western Macedonia. UNHCR's international NGO partners for this operation include: ICRC, IFRC, OXFAM, Médecins sans Frontières, International Rescue Committee, Swiss Disaster Relief and Medical Emergency Relief International.
by Michael Barutciski, Research Fellow in International Refugee Law, Refugee Studies Programme
On 18 May 1998, the RSP hosted a workshop entitled 'Preventing a humanitarian crisis in Kosovo’; participants included a mixture of practitioners (UN, NGO, government) and academics from several disciplines. The workshop provided a forum for
a) the exchange of views,
b) the exploration of possible political arrangements and
c) the launch of an RSP research project to provide policy makers with analytical research that can contribute to attenuating the tensions in Kosovo and dealing with a potential refugee outflow.
For a report on the workshop, contact Michael Barutciski at the RSP or email him at michael.barutciski@qeh.ox.ac.uk